AI, the Democrats’ victory changes US strategies. Opportunities and risks for Europe

The Democrats’ victory in the American midterm elections will have an impact on the development of AI. It could change the country’s technological strategies, introducing more rules. With repercussions in Europe too. Everything concerning American digital technology, in fact, affects us given our historical dependence on technologies made in the USA.

The new Congress will take office on 3 January 2027 and will therefore be able to influence the contest, changing the landscape and its trajectories. For example, they could promote legislative initiatives and congressional oversight inspired by earlier measures taken by the Biden administration, such as, let us recall, the executive order of October 2023, which required companies developing the most advanced models to report the results of safety tests to the government.

In other words, if this approach is followed and if, above all, Trump does not exercise his veto power, the overall picture will change. For the major AI companies, which have recorded sharp stock market losses precisely because of these fears, the beginning of a new era is therefore possible, with greater oversight, detailed checks and a brake on uncontrolled development. A phase with safety rules closer to European ones.

The hottest front at the moment is that of data centres, the heart of AI. Many of the Democratic politicians just elected have spoken in favour of limiting these vast facilities, in line with demands from the public. And if building new facilities becomes more difficult, the development of artificial intelligence could also slow down, with consequences for the costs and availability of computing power.

And this brings us to our own position. Europe, as we know, depends on American models and cloud services. If the blue wave changes the AI regulatory landscape, we could on the one hand benefit from greater safety guarantees, but on the other also face price increases and delays in the availability of services.

The new situation could, however, offer more room for our technology industry. Provided it focuses on infrastructure and computing capacity, thus attempting to narrow the gap with the USA, as envisaged, moreover, by the European Commission’s recent Tech Sovereignty Package proposal.

These are still hypotheses, of course. Trump remains president and the weight the new Congress will carry has yet to be assessed. Nor should we underestimate the pressure from Big Tech, accustomed to setting the agenda for the president and Congress, investing billions to "buy" support.

One thing can be said: the American elections remind us how much our digital future depends on decisions made elsewhere. And how relevant the question of European digital sovereignty is, of our ability to be autonomous and proactive in the challenge that is shaping the future.